The 1999 Dot-Com Bubble: How Retail Investors Crashed

🔹 I. Background: Tech Dreams & Wealth Illusions (1995–1999)

  • The Tech Revolution Begins: In the mid-1990s, internet technology advanced rapidly. Companies like Microsoft, Yahoo, Amazon, and Cisco saw their market caps soar.
  • Retail Investor Frenzy: Internet companies went public despite being unprofitable, often without even a viable product. Retail investors, hyped by the “New Economy” narrative, flooded into the market.
  • Media Hype: Financial media like CNBC constantly promoted the “next Amazon,” creating a national stock-buying frenzy. Even taxi drivers and homemakers were investing in tech stocks.
  • Low Interest Rates + Easy Money: The Federal Reserve maintained low interest rates, and capital flowed freely into equities.

🔹 II. Mania Phase: 1999 to Early 2000

  • NASDAQ Skyrockets: The NASDAQ gained 86% in 1999, reaching over 5,000 points by March 2000 — a more than threefold increase in three years.
  • “.com” IPO Frenzy: In 1999 alone, over 300 internet companies went public in the U.S. Most had no profits — some didn’t even have real products.
  • Retail Investors Leveraged In: Many used margin accounts, credit cards, and even sold homes to buy “dot-com” stocks.

🔹 III. Peak & Collapse: March 2000

  • Valuation Bubble Bursts: On March 10, 2000, the NASDAQ peaked at 5048 and began to plummet.
  • Big Money Pulled Out: Institutional investors began to exit first, drying up liquidity. Retail investors were left trapped.
  • Sentiment Flipped: Former tech darlings began reporting losses. Market confidence quickly turned to panic.

🔹 IV. Full Meltdown: 2000–2002

  • NASDAQ Crash: From its peak, the NASDAQ fell by over 78%, bottoming around 1100 points.
  • Mass Retail Blowups: Many retail traders were wiped out, unable to cut losses. Entire life savings and retirement funds were erased.
  • Massive Company Failures: Over 90% of the hyped dot-com companies eventually went bankrupt.

Astronomical cycles and symmetry

1996 – Libra:
The market emphasized balance and cooperation at that time. Technology stocks began to rise, and market sentiment was optimistic, gradually entering a phase of enthusiasm.

2006 – Gemini:
The market was characterized by rapid information dissemination. Excessive credit led to a bubble nearing its peak, eventually triggering the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Gemini symbolizes fast change and information explosion but also uncertainty and contradictions.

2025 – Aries:
This is a highly pioneering sign, representing a new cycle and fresh beginnings. Aries also brings intense conflicts and dramatic changes. It emphasizes action, breaking old frameworks, and suggests the market may experience structural transformation with new industries and capital flows emerging.

Current Astrological Influence: Aries

  • The market is likely to exhibit increased volatility and rapid changes.
  • Investor sentiment may lean toward aggressive and exploratory buying.
  • Suitable for seeking breakthroughs and short-term trading opportunities.

Mid-to-Long Term Outlook:

  • Aries Node implies the market will go through a “destroy and renew” phase.
  • Many traditional industries and investment approaches will be replaced by emerging trends.
  • Sectors like technological innovation, energy transition, and AI are likely to receive special focus.

Risk Warning:

  • Aries also brings conflict and impatience.
  • Beware of excessive optimism or rushed trades that may lead to pullbacks.

2025 Market Forecast by Month:

  • June 2025: Aries energy strengthens, potentially leading to a short-term rally or rebound.
  • July to August 2025: Slow-moving planets like Saturn and Jupiter enter key signs, intensifying structural market adjustments and causing trend divergences in some assets.
  • September 2025: Possible significant market volatility or pullback; investors should monitor capital flows and risk carefully.
  • October 2025: Confirmation of a new trend, especially active in technology, energy transition, and emerging industries.
  • November to December 2025: Market stabilizes but remains somewhat divided; overall still driven by the theme of “new cycle and innovation.”

Email + Practical Options Course


The prerequisite for this course is that you have participated in transactions between February and April 21, 2025 with a positive total income

Module 1: Options Fundamentals Review (Foundation for Practical Trading)

  • 1.1 What is an Option? (Calls, Puts, Buyers, Sellers)
  • 1.2 Option Premium: Intrinsic Value vs. Time Value
  • 1.3 Expiration, Exercise, and Assignment Explained
  • 1.4 The Greeks: Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, Rho
  • 1.5 American vs. European Options

Module 2: Option Pricing & Market Interpretation

  • 2.1 Understanding Volatility: Historical vs. Implied
  • 2.2 How Volatility Affects Option Prices
  • 2.3 Using Implied Volatility to Drive Strategy Selection
  • 2.4 Interpreting Option Chains & Market Sentiment

Module 3: Core Trading Strategies

  • 3.1 Buying Calls & Puts: Use Cases and Pitfalls
  • 3.2 Covered Calls: Generating Passive Income
  • 3.3 Protective Puts: Hedging Long Stock Positions
  • 3.4 Vertical Spreads: Bull Call & Bear Put Spreads
  • 3.5 Building & Reading Profit/Loss Graphs

Module 4: Intermediate Strategies & Market Adaptation

  • 4.1 Straddles & Strangles: Volatility Plays
  • 4.2 Iron Condor & Iron Butterfly: Neutral Income Strategies
  • 4.3 Ratio Spreads & Backspreads
  • 4.4 Choosing Strategies Based on Market Conditions

Module 5: Designing Real-World Trading Plans

  • 5.1 Strategy Selection for Trending vs. Sideways Markets
  • 5.2 Adjusting Strategies Based on IV Levels
  • 5.3 Multi-Timeframe Planning: Daily, Weekly, Monthly Trades
  • 5.4 Event-Driven Trades (Earnings, Fed Meetings, CPI)

Module 6: Live Trading & Position Management

  • 6.1 Platform Walkthrough: TOS, Interactive Brokers, etc.
  • 6.2 Position Sizing & Capital Allocation
  • 6.3 Managing Winners & Losers (Profit Taking & Stop Loss)
  • 6.4 Spotting Arbitrage and Avoiding Execution Traps

Module 7: Risk Management & Anti-Fragility

  • 7.1 Identifying Leverage Risk
  • 7.2 Understanding Gamma Risk & Liquidity Traps
  • 7.3 Volatility Crush & IV Collapse Risk
  • 7.4 Black Swan Protection & Hedging Concepts

Module 8: Real Case Studies & Strategy Labs

  • 8.1 Earnings Strategy Deep Dive (e.g., Apple, Tesla)
  • 8.2 Neutral Market Income Strategies During Sideways Markets
  • 8.3 Adaptive Strategy Tactics in Extreme Markets
  • 8.4 Option Strategy Backtests on ZIM, SOXL, SPY, etc.

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Business Cycle Trading Framework – Detailed Outline-

1.1 BUSINESS AND Astrology

Nodal Cycle Constellations and Emotions

Astrophysical physics and electric currents

Chaos Theory and Harmonics Octave

Trading Psychology and Astrology

  1. Transaction Framework 交易框架

重点是规范化交易决策过程，包括：定时间、定时点、定质量、定频率

建立一个 “周期形成 – 元素合法 – 主体行为” 的规则系统

  1. S&P500 vs GDP 股市和实体经济的差值

市场有先行性，S&P500 通常先体 GDP 变化 6-12 个月

对比：经济快速增长时，股市也不一定涨，这可能是因为贷款或利率缺口

  1. Bull and Bear Markets 牛熊市的区分

牛市：保持在无写的 liquidity expansion 和 earnings growth

熊市：更多地反映 credit contraction 和 P/E 低估

标准：20%上涨/下降。常住异部形态和顶部通脱形成波浪形势

  1. Real Interest Rates & Yield Curve 真实利率和收益率曲线

Real Rates = Nominal Rates – Inflation Expectations

Yield Curve Inversion 是经济衰退预警中最强烈的一个

长短期利差表示 liquidity preference 和 risk premium 变化

  1. Corporate Bonds & Credit Spreads 企业债和信用平差

HY vs IG spreads 是对 risk appetite 的指标

常用 HYG/LQD 或 BAA/AAA 债券收益率差衡

信用平差扩大通常在 bear market 初期。

  1. Money Supply 货币量

M2 YoY 变化通常先体债动和价格波动

Fed QT/QE 直接影响 liquidity risk 和 asset risk premium

  1. ISM Manufacturing 指数

先行性强。>50 表示扩展，<50 缩缓

New Orders – Inventories 是 forward-looking spread

  1. MNI Business Activity

Chicago PMI 有时先行于全美 ISM

用于确诊 ISM 转折点

  1. UMCSI (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index)

反映 consumer expectation 和 spending intention

其中 “expectation” 分项频繁先行 stock market 和 housing

  1. Building Report (建筑数据)

Housing starts, Building Permits

最敏感的预定向预约行为

  1. Cyclical Commodity Prices

铜 Copper 被称为 “Dr. Copper”，预示工业和金融周期

油价：有时反映 supply shock 而非 demand cycle

  1. ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator)

特别适合欧洲，合成评估指数

  1. China Official & Caixin PMI

Caixin PMI 重添债动和 export expectations

中国周期会前端影响当前物价/物流

  1. Timing vs. Social Media 时间 vs 社交行为

“人群行为冲动总是过早或过晚”

GEX (gamma exposure)、Reddit sentiment 、Google Trends 这类无线资料可为 timing 强化

  1. Time = Price 时间等价格

Gann 理论：1×1 角度、square of 9 对应周期和偏移

可进行 square time/projection 应用到 ES, NQ, TSLA 等

  1. Option Roll Cycle Model (JPM)

无情的 JPM 指演，期权换月时间大会对 vanna/charm 有大影响

通常在 monthly OPEX 前后带条线性 trend reversal

  1. TSLA Case – Time + Price

2020-2021 TSLA 时间链和 earnings expansion 对应

转折点前有 symmetrical time cycles + fundamental divergence

  1. Algorithmic Time – US Main Cycle since 2009

2009 为 liquidity cycle 起点

2015/2020/2024 为关键 5 年 sub-cycle 分段

全美市场正处于 late-cycle + 被控的 distribution phase

  1. Sub-cycles Dominating the U.S.

Presidential Cycle

10-Year Treasury Cycle

Kondratieff Wave (50-60 years long wave)

Before December 2025, the course fee is 8000 USD

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